Crossroads: The Rise of the Far Right and the Future of Europe
Understanding and Characterizing the Evolution, Impact, and Political Ascendancy of Far-Right Movements in Europe
The far-right, also known as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, represents the most extreme form of right-wing politics. It is characterised by various ideologies, beliefs and practices that significantly differ from mainstream society, including ultra-nationalism, racial supremacy, authoritarianism and rejection of egalitarianism.
Ultra-nationalism is often a key characteristic of the far right, with proponents expressing intense support for their nation and its interests. Racial supremacy, another typical feature, involves the belief that certain races are superior to others and should thus hold greater power or rights.
Authoritarianism is also frequently associated with the far right and involves a strong central power with limited political freedoms. In many cases, far-right movements reject egalitarian ideals, which assert that all people are fundamentally equal and deserve the same rights and opportunities.
While definitions vary, the far right typically rejects mainstream conservatism. Instead, it may seek to revive traditional social orders and hierarchies, which often involve the dominance of certain groups over others.
The far right in Europe is not a monolith, with different parties and movements espousing various forms of nationalism, populism, and, in some cases, outright extremism. It's important to differentiate between these groups to understand the political landscape fully. Additionally, it is important to note interpretations and definitions can vary based on cultural and national contexts. What is considered extreme in one country may be seen as more moderate in another. As we explore the case studies in six countries across Europe in the sections below, these nuances must be kept in mind.
Historical examples include the Nazi movement in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s and Italian fascism, which started in the 1920s. Today, it manifests itself in various forms, such as neo-Nazism, the alt-right, white nationalism and other movements which expound ultranationalist, xenophobic, racist, homophobic and reactionary views. This populist extremism leads to oppression, violence and forced assimilation against groups of people based on their minority identity or the perceived threat their identity poses to the native ethnic group, state or ultraconservative institutions.
In Europe, the far right has been gaining traction over the past few decades, with several far-right political parties gaining seats in national parliaments and, in some cases, even entering government coalitions. These parties typically campaign on issues like immigration, national identity, and Euroscepticism. Indeed, over 30% of the vote is given to extreme right parties in countries such as Italy, Hungary, and Poland.
Increasingly, far-right populists are in ruling coalitions in Europe. As current polls stand, the far-right party FPÖ is in the lead to win in the Austrian elections in autumn. The right-wing AfD and the Front National parties are gaining record-high support in both Germany and France. Even as an opposition party, France’s National Rally has been able to set the agenda for France’s repressive immigration bill in December 2023.
Worryingly, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations, nationalist right and far-right parties are expected to gain a quarter of seats at the European Parliament in the EU elections in June. More alarmingly, radical right parties are predicted to come out on top in nine countries, including Austria, France and Poland. Moreover, far-right parties are expected to secure either second or third positions in nine other countries, such as Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden.
This could mean that for the first time, the far-right could have the opportunity to set Europe’s policy agenda, such as threatening EU values on the rule of law and human rights and overturning green and climate legislation. Simon Hix, a professor of comparative politics at the European University Institute, predicts that Europe is “going to see a really significant shift to the right”, forecasting that the far-right group Identity & Democracy (ID) will gain 40 additional seats in the European Parliament.
Case Studies
Tutte le strade portano a Roma: tracing Italy's Far-Right Ascension
Italy has conquered newspaper headlines when it comes to its current political landscape. Italy is now ruled by Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister and head of the party “Fratelli d’Italia”, with neo-fascist roots. The Italian landscape had its origins “from a combination of domestic and international political events, from the decrease of power of the Italian Communist Party to the “Bribesville” scandal that collapsed “the first and the third‐largest parties”. In these events, globalization‐related vectors such as the Economic Crisis and Recessions and the increase in Migration Flows should be listed as factors in the increase of Populism discourses and, ultimately, Far-Right power.
Digging deeper into the migration flows, Italy remains one of the “doors” of Europe, appealing to many seeking a better and safer life. What can be known as the “European Dream” quickly became a nightmare for many seeking refuge.
Lampedusa is a particularly relevant case study as this small island has been at the centre of many migration flows due to its strategic proximity to the African continent. Historically, Lampedusa has always had a multicultural heritage. Italy and Tunisia (the closest country to Lampedusa) used to maintain good relationships, leading to “no specific limitations to crossing the maritime border dividing Italy from North Africa”. However, with the adhesion to the Schengen Area and the increasing presence of the Far-Right in the country, Lampedusa was transformed from “near and friendly” to “distant and other”.
Lampedusa’s identity coexists with two opposing views: on the one hand, the normalisation of a “quasi-militariz[ed] frontier”; on the other hand, memories of cooperation and assistance. Consequently, this dichotomy has spillover impacts on Italy as a whole - dividing an already diverged country - and fragments refugee’s identities as well - they “constitute a grey zone between visibility and invisibility, silence and victimization”. At the same time, their lives represent just numbers, even for news streams.
This securitisation process transformed Lampedusa into a place of “exception”, continuously enabled by the country's growing political right and the centre-left. This exceptionality led to a state of Emergency in 2011 and 2023, human rights violations, and prohibitions of NGOs and journalists from accessing the island. Ultimately, it led to framing migrants as threats and replaced what should have been the first priority since the beginning - Humanity and the pursuit of European Charter values in dealing with such a humanitarian crisis.
In conclusion, Lampedusa illustrates how the European dream can become a nightmare, a place of human rights violations and profound contradictions, emphasizing the dangers of the Far-Right's increase in power for the overall society, particularly the most vulnerable communities.
2. Petit à Petit: Tracing the Nest of France’s Far-Right Ascension
France is a relevant case study addressing the extreme right's ascension. Its political context is even considered “(...) its worst democratic crisis since the 1930s” by two special advisers to former French Presidents Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy.
France's far-right political scene is dominated by Rassemblement National (RN), founded by Jean Marie Le Pen, the father of the present leader Marine Le Pen. The party can be defined as a “classic extreme right-wing party, campaigning on a narrative of national preference, law-and-order, and anti-immigration, notably the migration of people of Muslim and Arab descent”.
As similar to other realities across Europe, Gilles Ivaldi clarifies that France’s context is the coexistence of three issues – immigration, security and economic insecurity – that creates a very “powerful cocktail for the far right”. This cocktail is inflamed by factors such as inflation, “vulnerabilities in the 2022 presidential coalition NUPES”, dichotomy Zemmour-Le Pen or media presence. Le Pen has successfully portrayed herself “with the proliferation of right-wing media that are “clearly ideological and which are propagating far-right themes and ideas”” leading to the historical results in the 2022 Presidential Elections.
The mere result is already something to be alarmed by as it impacts significantly the lives of women, people of colour, LGBTQIA+ people, and immigrants, among many others. However, the real danger arises when real action occurs. Over the last month, France has been at the epicentre of protests regarding the controversial “Loi Immigration”. Claire Hédon, a French journalist, has denounced the problematic mechanisms previewed by the law, ranging from coercive measures to direct and harsh effects on access to nationality or droit de séjour, leaving many in an irregular situation. Overall, this law substantially impacts immigrants' rights, enhancing their vulnerabilities and access in an increasingly hostile environment. More recently, after an invitation by French President Emmanuel Macron to sing at the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games, Aya Nakamura, a French-Malien singer, was a victim of cruel racist attacks by the French far-right.
Something to watch for is the potential results in the upcoming European Elections, as the party's popularity can contribute to the rise of the extreme right in the European Parliament, which can culminate in catastrophic results, not only for France and its inhabitants but to the Union as a whole.
3. De Amsterdamse Wind van Verandering: The Rise of the Far-Right in the Netherlands
The recent shock election outcome in the Netherlands has underscored the rise of the far right in Europe. Geert Wilders, the leader of the country’s anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV), led his party to an unexpected and decisive victory. The PVV, known for its controversial manifesto that includes calls for bans on mosques, the Qur'an, and the wearing of Islamic headscarves in government buildings, won 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament, more than doubling its previous number.
This victory, celebrated by other European far-right parties, signals a political shift in the Netherlands and has set the stage for complex and potentially prolonged coalition talks. Its impact reverberates across Europe, highlighting the growing influence of the far right. Victor Orban, the authoritarian prime minister of Hungary, noted that Wilders’ victory was a sign that “the winds of change are here”.
As of February 2024, Wilders’ hopes of becoming prime minister and forming a far-right majority government are dim, with one of the main potential partners, the New Social Contract (NSC), dropping out of coalition talks. The NSC, while ruling out the future possibility of joining a right-wing coalition, did not exclude the possibility of providing parliamentary support to a minority government led by Geert Wilders. In case no party alliance can reach a consensus to form a coalition, the possibility of holding new elections exists. However, recent polls indicate a significant increase in support for the PVV since November.
By 14 March 2024, coalition talks moved towards forming a technocratic government, as Wilders conceded he could not become prime minister. Despite disappointment from PVV voters, Wilders expressed that a right-wing cabinet could still benefit the Netherlands. Commentators suggest this decision might work in his favour, allowing him to maintain a critical role without the constraints of a coalition. This case study exemplifies the strategy of far-right parties within EU politics. In 2024, while it has become increasingly difficult for parties to find common ground, the strategy of extreme right parties will be not necessarily to win outright but to garner enough support to play a decisive role in shaping political dynamics in Brussels.
4. A Magyar Szélváltozás: The Ascent of Authoritarianism in Hungary
Viktor Orban, the longest-serving leader in the European Union, is perhaps the most dramatic example signifying the shift towards far-right authoritarian political figures. Since assuming power in 2010, Orban has dramatically transformed Hungary into what the European Parliament has criticized as a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy”. With an uncanny ability to maintain and strengthen his group on power, Orban has ushered in sweeping changes to Hungary’s laws and constitutions, winning four consecutive elections with super-majorities.
This transformation has been accompanied by a marked shift in ideology. As political scientist Zoltan Lakner observes, his reign has seen the gradual takeover of Hungary’s media landscape by his party and its supporters, thereby controlling the national narrative. Orban turned his back on liberalism to cultivate a nationalist, anti-liberal political force. Orban’s Alliance of Young Democrats-Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz) party has pushed through constitutional and legal changes that have allowed it to consolidate control over the country’s independent institutions, including the judiciary. The Orban government has passed anti-immigrant and anti-LGBTQ+ policies, as well as laws that hamper the operations of opposition groups, journalists, universities and NGOs that are critical of the ruling party or whose perspectives Fidesz finds unfavourable.
The freedom and plurality of the media in Hungary have been significantly curtailed since the Fidesz party came to power in 2010. With a controlling majority in parliament, the Fidesz government has enacted numerous legislative measures to restrict independent reporting and enable politically aligned owners and investors to take over media outlets. The distortion of Hungary’s media market, the government's grip on public service media, and the pressures faced by independent and investigative journalists, which include surveillance and smear campaigns, result from the wider erosion and capture of democratic institutions by Orban’s Fidesz government. The government's expanding control over both public and private media, as part of its broader attack on Hungary's rule of law, hampers the media's ability to scrutinize the executive—a crucial democratic function.
Although often isolated at EU summits, Orban is not without allies. If predictions of a rightward swing in EU electoral politics materialise, this could change. Orban himself is optimistic about change in the upcoming European elections and on his terms.
5. Steg för Steg: Tracking the Emergence of Sweden's Far-Right Surge"
Europe has seen a significant rise in far-right political movements in recent years. A prime case study of this trend is Sweden, where the national elections in September 2022 led to the formation of a right-wing government. This government is a centre-right coalition formed by three parties - the Moderate Party, the Christian Democrats, and the Liberal Party - with a slim majority of only three seats.
This coalition relies heavily on support from the far-right Sweden Democrats through a “confidence and supply” agreement. This agreement enables the Sweden Democrats to support for the government on key issues, without formally being part of the coalition. It's noteworthy that the Sweden Democrats have successfully influenced certain policy decisions, particularly in the area of migration, demonstrating their growing political influence.
The Sweden Democrats, despite their controversial anti-immigrant stance, have seen a steady increase in their political influence. They have grown from holding 62 seats to now standing as the largest right-wing party with 73 seats. This significant growth and influence of a far-right party highlights the shift in Sweden's political dynamics and underlines the growing influence of far-right parties across Europe.
A significant concern for Swedish society and the government has been the continued rise in gun violence. In response, the new government has pursued a "tough-on-crime" agenda, aiming to reduce crime rates and increase public safety. Public opinion has also started to reflect this shift in political dynamics. A recent poll conducted by Indikator Opinion for Radio Ekot revealed interesting results. According to the poll, 18% of respondents would choose the leader of the Sweden Democrats, Åkesson, as their preferred prime minister.
Even more intriguing, when looking at the voters’ preferences of the ruling coalition parties, Åkesson also leads in popularity. He commands 41% support compared to Kristersson's 37%. This trend is not just a reflection of the growing popularity of Åkesson as a political leader but can also be seen as an indicator of the growing public opinion in favour of the Sweden Democrats. This shift in public opinion is a testament to the increasing influence of far-right parties in Swedish and European politics.
Counteracting the Far-Right: Strategies and Approaches
The extreme right threatens societies and undermines democracy. It perpetuates a political and socioeconomic system of exclusion and marginalisation. The danger of these parties affects differently the individuals having a bigger incision on women, people of colour, immigrants, refugees and the poor. History has taught us through various examples of the atrocities that can be committed under these regimes, and not one Fascist party has risen from nowhere. They all started by manipulating people’s ideas, bringing hot topics to debate and transforming them into security and nationalistic concerns. They do rise from the ashes, and they take advantage of the collective forgotten, crisis, and times of turmoil.
So what is left for those who remember, who say “Never Again”? Counteract. There are multiple ways to counteract this, but nothing is stronger than Education. As with everything, education is not neutral, but we see more critical approaches towards history. That’s the beginning. How do we keep people engaged? We foster their curiosity and put them in the dialogue, in the position to act. Promoting participatory democracy through school events such as MUN, NATO, EU, and Parliament Models, where people come together to discuss and learn from one another, has proven to be an excellent mechanism of political awakening. Promoting Participatory Budgets and calling more people to the dialogue on how funds should be spent and what the city’s strategy should look like - without tokens. On a local or national level, we should never underestimate the power of protests and awareness campaigns in pressuring our leaders.
The European Union should be especially concerned about this trend as it undermines the values upon which the European project has been built. There’s an increased need for funding for research and projects to fight these dangers. In the era of Social Media and fast-paced information, mechanisms against the spread of fake news and hate crime must be in place and well spread.
In a world where every breath is political, we are constantly confronted with political choices and decisions - the simple act of “being” is political. However, being our true selves is a privilege for some. Many of us, people of colour, women, people with disabilities, queer, trans, cannot always afford to make big, bold decisions or statements. Our existence, rights and freedom are threatened under even the minor presence of the far-right. Despite that, we are still here, even in silent acts of resistance.
In the upcoming European elections, voting is also an act of resistance. Resistance against what is wrong and what should be correct. Resistance against those who want to silence our very own existences. Resistance in advocating for better conditions for all, equality, inclusion and representation. Resistance to a future where every person can thrive.
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About the authors:
Érica Moreira graduated from the University of Coimbra with a bachelor’s in International Relations. She is currently a master’s student in International Governance and Diplomacy, specialising in Migration and Diplomacy, at Sciences Po Paris. She serves as a Youth Ambassador for Vila Nova de Gaia and an asylum team coordinator at SciencesPo Refugee Help. Additionally, she is an Outreach and Partnerships and Research Officer at Politics4Her Europe Hub and an activist at Amnesty International Portugal. Her academic interests centre around migration, human rights, and women’s rights.
Eileen Taylor is a dedicated Assistant Project Manager with a focus on human rights and Head of Research at Politics4Her Europe Hub. She has a Masters degree in Human Rights Law from SOAS, University of London. She excels in conducting thorough research, communicating effectively through various mediums, and managing projects for optimal impact. Passionate about advocating through an intersectional feminist perspective, she is deeply involved in human rights initiatives.
