“25 de Abril Sempre, Fascismo nunca mais”? The wrong (right) turn on the 50th Anniversary of the end of the Portuguese Dictatorship
In the 50-year celebration of the end of Estado Novo Dictatorship, Portugal is marked by a right-turn and an overwhelming result for the far-right party CHEGA. Portugal is not the first, nor will it be the last country to be condemned to the increase of the far-right. After a right turn in Portuguese Politics, we analyse how this can impact Portugal and beyond in the path to the European Elections.
On the 10th of March, Portugal was moved to the ballots to decide its future. The last Parliament only lasted two years after alleged corruption accusations against Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa led him to resign his position. Portugal's Parliament was dissolved by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, and elections were set for March 10th.
This Portuguese political crisis wasn’t favourable for the Left, which had ruled the country for the last eight years. On top of that, socioeconomic factors such as the “housing crisis unleashed by soaring rents, low wages, sagging healthcare and corruption, seen by many as endemic to the mainstream parties” dominated the campaigns.
The polls gave a victory to the right, but the real surprise was the rise of the far-right in a country characterised for “having escaped the wave”. After the Limpar Portugal (Clean Portugal) electoral campaign, CHEGA secured 18,1% of votes. This pushed Portugal into the growing trend of far-right ascension marked by populist discourses, anti-immigration feelings and gender-biased societal views. They aim to limit abortion, LGBTQIA+, women’s and minorities rights.
Figure 1: Differences between Legislative Elections results in 2022 to 2024 (POLITICO Poll of Polls — Portuguese polls, trends and election news for Portugal, 2024)
The more alarming was that, in just two years, Portugal suffered a 360º change and managed to pass from 12 to 48 far-right Members of Parliament (MP) in the Parliament, accounting for 18,1% (double the votes since 2022, when the party gathered 7,2% of the votes). This result means that 1 million people voted for this party, almost one fascist MP per year of democracy.
As if this was not a sufficient change, the elections registered fewer women since the 2015 Legislative Elections. A retrocession that culminated in 76 seats for women (against 150 seats occupied by men) among the 226 MPs elected. In 2022, 85 women were elected, accounting for 37%, below the parity line defined in 40% of representation in the lists. Equally relevant to this point is the huge lack of representativity, as all the women elected are white. This being said we must also acknowledge that women being elected does not equal women’s rights being at the centre of the table, as warned by the “Democratic Women Movement” (Movimento Democrático de Mulheres).
A unanimous majority from the left in all districts in 2022 that granted an “absolute majority of 120 in the previous legislature” led to a North dominated by the right, centre and south by the left and the district of Faro - characterised by its welcoming beaches, comforting weather and tourism - by the far right. Faro is the first and only district marked by a far-right majority. Faro’s welcoming environment is marked by increasing inequalities and poverty. Faro’s “heaven” is ensured by immigrants, quickly transforming a dreamy beachy paradise into an inhospitable and precarious nightmare.
Another trend felt during this election was the drop in the abstention rate. Abstention was set at 33,8%, the lowest since 1995, or 25% if we do not account for “ghost-electors”, as called out by José Santana Pereira. This phenomenon may be related to far-right votes, as Chega's campaign targeted the politically disenchanted.
Regarding the voting profile, it is known that several categories, such as gender (1), age and educational background, deeply influence their choice.
Women are revealed to have a higher tendency to vote on the left, while men are more politically on the right. The most significant distinction is in CHEGA’s case.
Young people have a much higher propensity for the right (being that on Iniciativa Liberal or CHEGA), while Aliança Democrática remains equal among 18-34 years old and 65+. Partido Socialista and Coligação Democrática Unitária gathered more votes from 65+, while Bloco de Esquerda, LIVRE and Pessoas-Animais-Natureza from the age range of 18-34 years old.
If we are to consider educational background:
Without higher education, we observe that both women and men from 18-34 years old have a higher chance of voting CHEGA, while women above 34 years have a higher inclination for PS. Men aged 35-64 have a similar probability of voting on AD, CHEGA or PS, while 65+ have a much higher propensity for PS.
With higher education, women from 18-64 years old have a higher probability of voting for AD, while above 65, there are equal probabilities. Men aged 18-64 have a higher propensity for AD, while PS wins among +65.
How can a country change this much “overnight”? What are the underlying reasons?
The answer is simple. A country does not change this much overnight if the ideas are not already seeded. There may have been a lack of supply, but not a lack of demand.
Portugal's colonial roots are still deeply present in its culture. Portugal was the last of the European countries to recognise independence from former colonies. Colonial Wars lasted from 1961 to 1974, Guinea Bissau being the last to be recognised as independent in 1975 - 49 years ago. From monuments praising that period to history teaching romanticising the “Descobrimentos” (Discoveries - imperial period), popular sayings, or attacks on people on the streets or, even in Parliament by the far-right leader, André Ventura, we observe how racism shapes the narratives and quotidian of Portugal.
What can be expected after these results?
Elections are not yet complete, 99% of the votes are accounted for. However, there are still four MPs to be elected;
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will “consult the parties between March 12 and 20 and is expected to invite AD leader Luis Montenegro to form a minority government”
Politically, there are many possible scenarios:
Minority government that would represent negotiating with other parties to be able to pass legislation;
Coalition with far-right has been denied by AD’s leader Luís Montenegro, but has some internal pressure, such as from Gonçalo da Camâra Pereira, President of the Monarquic Party, that does not "reject any understanding between the Democratic Alliance and Chega in the name of governmental stability”. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has declared he would do anything to impede Chega from getting to power;
Possible conversations with centre-left - a phenomenon seen in Spain;
Left coalition (PS, BE, CDU, PAN, LIVRE) and a Gerigonça 2.0;
The ultimate political test will be in the 2025 State Budget as its approval failure “usually means the government's collapse and a new election” is set up.
European implications
On the path to the European Union elections, we should remain vigilant and attentive. The far-right ascension in Europe is not a new phenomenon, and it is expected to gain more votes and 40 more predicted seats - leading to 98 places and becoming the “third place currently occupied by the Liberals”. According to a European Council on Foreign Relations brief, they “forecast, almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups” - representing a significant shift in many EU States.
The far-right ascension can jeopardise the construction of the European project and have direct and concrete consequences on European-level policies regarding fundamental rights, women's rights, the environment, migration and many other topics, leaving many in a vulnerable situation.
In the presence of the most informed generation of all, in the age of social media and fast content, the danger of misinformation and the ascension of far-right are threats to be taken seriously as they undermine the path and achievements already conquered, endangering future victories and the possibility of inclusion of all.
“Não se preocupem com o local onde sepultar o meu corpo. Preocupem-se é com aqueles que querem sepultar o que ajudei a construir.
(Do not worry about where to bury my body. Worry about those who want to bury what I helped build)
”
(1) Politics4Her and the author of this article defend that Gender is a social-construct and transcend the binary categorisation (male/female). However, in this article, due to the data available, gender will be treated in this dichotomic sense. We further encourage research and polls to take into account other gender in future works.
This article was written on the 16th of March when 99% of results were counted. Results from outside Portugal are still pending. Therefore, some values may change slightly, and the article will be updated accordingly.
Section about CHEGA
CHEGA (Enough) is a far-right Portuguese party founded by André Ventura in 2019. CHEGA can be described as a populist, nationalist and conservative party. It espouses racist, xenophobic, sexist, homophobic and transphobic ideologies, upholding anti-immigration and anti-abortion ideas. The party is affiliated with the European group “Identity and Democracy”, which includes parties such as Rassemblement National (France), Alternative für Deutschland (Germany) and Lega (Italy). The party has been involved in numerous polemics: from Nazi salutations to legal challenges pointing to the unconstitutionality of the Party, corruption, criminal history of the militants, and the financing of the party, among many others.
André Ventura is a Portuguese politician and former University Professor at Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa and Faculdade de Direito da Universidade Nova de Lisboa. He was a juridical consultant and councillor of the city of Loures. He used to be a football commentator. Before founding his own party in 2019, he was a member of Partido Social Democrata. He became known for his anti-gipsy discourse and polemics. In 2019, he was the sole MP elected in the 2019 Legislative Elections. He ran in the 2021 Presidential Elections and in the 2022 and 2024 Legislative elections.
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About the author:
Érica Moreira graduated from the University of Coimbra with a bachelor’s in International Relations. She is currently a master’s student in International Governance and Diplomacy, specialising in Migration and Diplomacy, at Sciences Po Paris. She serves as a Youth Ambassador for Vila Nova de Gaia and an asylum team coordinator at SciencesPo Refugee Help. Additionally, she is an Outreach and Partnerships and Research Officer at Politics4Her Europe Hub and an activist at Amnesty International Portugal. Her academic interests centre around migration, human rights, and women’s rights.
