Trump’s Puppet Show: The Future of Migration in Europe
🚨 Trigger Warnings: Deportation, Anti-Immigration Discourses and Policies, Violence, Family Separation, Islamophobia
Introduction
In an interconnected, globalized society, the increased politicization and securitization(1) of migration has transformed what was always a human phenomenon into a divisive topic, a minefield of opinions that, ultimately, harm the people seeking better conditions. Nowhere is this more visible than in the policies and rhetoric surrounding migration in the United States and Europe. Historically linked through shared political values, economic ties, and security alliances, the two regions have often mirrored or influenced each other’s politics. While each faces distinct realities, the broader debates over national identity and border security have fueled right-wing and far-right policies on both sides of the Atlantic.
The article will focus on Trump’s horrific policies and the consequences for the future of migration in the European continent. While it will not delve profoundly into US politics and individually to refugees and migrants, it does not aim to dismiss the anxiety, suffering and trauma caused by politicians in a “puppet show”. What is happening in the US and its potential impacts in Europe will dictate a new era for refugee and migrant protection, human rights and international justice. How Europe will respond to that is crucial, not just for the sake of the European Union project, but for the cohesion of the States in a rules-based international order.
Contextualization
During his first time in office, Donald J. Trump was responsible for implementing some of the most restrictive migration policies in modern U.S. history. It is always important to remember and acknowledge that the U.S. is a country born out of immigration; thus, migrants, asylum-seekers, and refugees are a crucial part of the country’s history. Trump’s campaign motto, “Make America Great Again” (MAGA), emphasised a nostalgic vision of restoring “America’s greatness”. The vagueness of this slogan has, in fact, led to multiple interpretations, being able to gather different personal experiences and political beliefs under the “same umbrella”. MAGA symbolised a return to economic prosperity, strong national identity, and traditional values. It is crucial to note that this nostalgic vision has eliminated great suffering - particularly omitting historical crimes of this “glorified past”: colonization, slavery and racial segregation. His “America First” foreign policy culminated in a strict stance against immigration, resulting in stricter border control and lower refugee admissions.
Not much time has passed since Donald J. Trump took office as the 47º President of the United States of America. This second term promises to be far worse than its first: “Donald Trump remains erratic and inconsistent when it comes to foreign policy. But the broader Republican foreign policy ecosystem forming around his administration is increasingly clear and organised”. Just in his first weeks in office, Trump has signed uncountable executive orders ranging from ending birthright citizenship - a right enshrined in the Constitution - to pardons for January 6th rioters and the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and World Health Organization. In regards to migration, some recent executive orders include the freeze on the country’s refugee resettlement program starting on 27 January and the creation of a migrant detention centre at Guantánamo Bay. Guantánamo Bay, located in Cuba, is well-known for its high-security prison and has long been criticized for its use of torture (waterboarding, sleep deprivation), indefinite detention without trial, and systematic human rights abuses. In the face of this legacy, the establishment of this center raises concerns over potential human rights violations, treatment conditions, and the broader implications for U.S. immigration policy.
As a key player in global migration governance, the U.S. has previously collaborated with European nations to manage migration flows. However, the Trump administration’s hardline approach to migration influenced and reflected broader global trends, particularly in Europe, where many countries simultaneously grappled with their approach to migration. The rhetoric of nationalism and border security resonated with right-wing movements across Europe, contributing to stricter immigration laws and increasing scepticism toward asylum-seekers. Furthermore, U.S. policies had tangible effects on European migration dynamics, particularly regarding refugee resettlement. As the European Union attempts to implement its highly criticized EU Pact on Migration and Asylum in an increasingly hostile environment towards migration, it becomes crucial to assess the long-term effects of Trump’s inconsequential actions and policies on migration in Europe. Will European nations mirror Trump’s approach or push for international collaboration and prioritise its humanitarian obligations, positioning the European Union as a relevant social actor? Despite the path chosen, one thing is sure: the choices made in the next few years will dictate the lives of millions who just decided to fight for a better future and got caught in this puppet show.
An Overview of Trump’s Administration Migration Policies
Immigration was a cornerstone of Trump’s Administration and electoral campaign, which revolved around the topic. During his first tenure as President, from 2017 to 2021, Trump’s Administration enacted some of the most restrictive migration policies in modern U.S. history. His administration framed immigration as a national security threat, emphasizing border control, reduced legal migration, and stricter asylum policies. “In four years, it completed 472 executive actions affecting U.S. immigration policy, with 39 more proposed but unimplemented when the administration ended.” While its administration may not have followed with some of its most extreme policy suggestions, it “successfully narrowed grants of humanitarian protection, increased enforcement, and made legal immigration more difficult.”
While the aim of the article is not to delve into great detail into the “why” and “how” behind his migration policies, the process of “othering” is important to acknowledge as it was not only a rhetorical tool but also a foundational aspect of his governance and policy-making.
The process of "othering" lies in portraying that certain (marginalized) groups are fundamentally different or even threatening to the dominant in-group. The construction of this “common enemy” is done by dismantling any sense of similarity or connectedness between people. In the context of Trump’s policies, “othering” was strategically employed to frame migrants, particularly those from Latin America, the Middle East, and certain Muslim-majority countries, as “outsiders” who posed not just an economic but a security and cultural threat to the U.S.
This process distracts the wider audience from the root causes of immigration. By focusing on a supposed external threat, his administration withdrew political support, particularly from those who felt economically or culturally alienated.
This process was evident in Trump’s rhetoric, through his language (employing derogatory terms such as “illegal aliens”; “rapists” and “invaders” or through policies such as border wall construction or the “Muslim Ban”).
Trump has claimed he would implement “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history”. To pursue this atrocious objective, he plans to use the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to bypass due process for deporting suspected criminals and authorize the National Guard for deportations.
One of the elements of Trump’s first Administration rule was the prioritization of the construction of a border wall alongside the U.S.-Mexico border. This costly border, argued to prevent illegal crossings and drug trafficking, was one of the mechanisms to deter migratory movements. Under the second Administration, he will continue its construction, possibly with the diversion of funds to support its costs.
Additionally, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) aggressively ramped up arrests and deportations of undocumented migrants, augmenting workplace raids and detentions to unparalleled levels. In 2025, ICE arrests have increased by 627%; representing more than 20,000 people arrested in a single month. Secondly, Trump implemented a “Zero Tolerance” policy, criminalizing irregular immigration and separating thousands of families. Even though the activist movement and the numerous denouncements pressured the Administration to end the policy, the long-term impacts of these separations including posterior challenges in family reunification and psychological impacts, possibly affecting generations to come. Moreover, the Administration also attempted to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which protects undocumented individuals brought to the U.S. as children from deportation. Despite the Supreme Court’s opposition to the measure, the Administration persisted in restricting its applicability. Trump is expected to attempt to end DACA again. He is set to suspend the U.S. refugee resettlement program once again, dismantle Temporary Protection Schemes, and restrict visa access. His Administration has advocated for a “merit-based” immigration system over the current family reunification approach.
Furthermore, implemented in 2019, the Migrant Protection Protocols forced Central American asylum-seekers to wait in Mexico while their cases were processed. Several critics denounced that this policy violated international asylum protection and increased migrants' vulnerability. The 2nd Trump Administration already announced that MPP would be put back into effect for a third time. This time, he was even more threatening as he announced he “would revive the use of Title 42, a law that allows border officials to expel migrants on public health grounds”.
Lastly, the “Muslim Ban”, restricting travel from several Muslim-majority countries, was an executive order that drastically reduced the refugee admission cap. In his second term, Trump has pledged to enlarge the country ban to the Gaza Strip, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen, as well as people with opposite views to Israel’s policies, Marxists or fascists.
Repercussions in Europe
A shift in migratory routes is one of the most immediate consequences of his restrictive migration policies. This can both mean more irregular and dangerous pathways to America or a rerouting towards Europe. As the U.S. became a less viable option for asylum seekers, Europe can be seen as an alternative destination. Governments are already divided over migration policies in continental Europe and within the European Union. Within this already hostile atmosphere, Trump’s approach resonates with anti-migration parties and European far-right politicians, who pointed to the U.S. as a model for strict border control. Far-right leaders in Europe(2), such as Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen in France, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, and Viktor Orbán in Hungary, not only mirrored some of Trump’s policies but found validation to advocate for stricter border controls and tougher asylum laws. The case of Nigel Farage from Reform UK, a far-right party, is particularly relevant as his friendship with Trump highlights the contact points of their agendas, particularly “against immigration”, bolstering right-wing populist movements across Europe. Thus, Trump’s intake in office could culminate in more restrictive migration policies within Europe and even impact European elections.
Additionally, as we have seen, the number of refugee admissions lowered: “in 2017 (...) the United States settled fewer refugees than the rest of the world”. This trend continued, and “in Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, the United States settled only 11,411 refugees—the fewest in any year since the creation of the U.S. refugee program”. This inward turn under Trump not only diminished the U.S.'s role in refugee resettlement but also signaled a retreat from multilateral commitments on humanitarian issues. With USAID funding frozen and U.S. financial support crucial to many humanitarian organizations, there is a serious risk of eroding coordinated responses to displacement crises. Until the present moment, Europe, and particularly the EU, have not adopted any ramping of funding for international causes. While many question, “Where is Europe at this moment?” It should also be noted that the failure to address responsibilities in the surge of conflicts and crises, and the power vacuum left vulnerable populations with diminished prospects for safety and resettlement. Moreover, the freezing of funds will exacerbate an already striking global crisis, leaving populations no other choice than to look for a safe living abroad. This could lead Europe to either increase investments in origin or transit countries to curb migratory movements - an approach aligned with past EU strategies to deter migration and expected by ICMPD - or to expand legal pathways focused on international protection commitments or to satisfy labour market needs. Given these scenarios and their far-reaching implications for our rules-based global order, all eyes are on Europe's responses.
Conclusion
The future of migration in the U.S. and Europe is at a critical crossroads. Trump's return to power came with the reinforcement of restrictive measures that not only severely impact asylum seekers and migrants but also influence European politics. As the U.S. retreats from its humanitarian commitments, leaving a vacuum, Europe faces a pivotal choice: will it increase its securitization and border enforcement mechanisms, or will it step up as a global leader in migration governance? The decisions made in the coming months and years will define not only the fate of millions seeking refuge but also the maintenance of international human rights-based order.
“If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.”
George Orwell from his book “1984”
(1): Process of framing migration as a security threat, leading to justify the employment of extraordinary measures to control it.
(2): For more information on the rise of far-right in Europe and its relation with migration, drawing from case studies of these countries, please refer to a previously published article by the author Érica Moreira, and Eileen Taylor, published in 2024 here.
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About the author:
Érica Moreira is an activist for multiple causes. Currently she is a master's student at Sciences Po Paris, where she deepens her knowledge and passion for Migration and Diplomacy. An avid women’s rights defender, she is the Co-Director of Politics4Her Europe, founded Pela Igualdade, a youth organization focused on gender equality and serves as a Youth Ambassador for Vila Nova de Gaia.
